Ukraine and Russia: Friends or Foes?

Ukraine has played a major but sometimes overlooked role in the global security order and their relationship with Russia is of great interest around the world. In recent times, they are on the front lines of a new power rivalry that many analysts say will be dominating international relations in the future.

“Is Russia planning to invade Ukraine?” is the question that everyone is asking. During the Cold War, Ukraine was an integral part of the Soviet Union, being the 2nd most populous nation of the 15 behind Russia. It was home to much of the nuclear arsenal and defence industries. However, in recent elections, the Ukrainian government has made it clear that it sees her future being tied closely to Europe. These moves by Ukraine towards European institutions and NATO in particular have been long resisted by Russia. President Vladimir Putin has warned that steps to bring Ukraine into the alliance “would be a hostile act towards Russia”. Currently, the threat of Russia invading Ukraine is being taken very seriously especially after the 2014 annexation of Crimea. President Putin has threatened “appropriate retaliatory military-technical measures”. In recent days, 100,000 Russian troops have amassed close to Ukraine’s northern border for military exercises. Despite Moscow denying any plans to invade, the invasion could occur at any time.

So, what are Russia’s aims and their plans for its relations with Ukraine? Russia has deep cultural, economic, and political bonds with Ukraine, and they are central to each other’s identity and vision in the world. Russia has been described as a revanchist power and they are keen to regain their former power and prestige. Ukraine and Russia were famously labelled “one nation” by Putin in a lengthy piece last year. They want to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO and becoming “anti-Russian”.

Despite this, what do Ukrainians want? Russia’s aggression in recent days has galvanised public support for Ukraine’s westward leanings. In 2019, Poroshenko was defeated by Volodymyr Zelensky, an actor and comedian who campaigned on a platform of anti corruption, economic renewal, and peace in the Donbas. Zelensky’s victory as a political outsider was viewed as a strong indicator of the public’s deep dissatisfaction with the political establishment and its halting battle against endemic corruption and an oligarchic economy. Despite their push for NATO and EU’s membership, public polls have revealed that only around 50% are in favour of joining NATO.

In conclusion, this relationship between Russia and Ukraine is one filled with ups and downs and it is set to be the talking point for the next few years to come.

Bibliography:

Kirby, Paul. “Is Russia Going to War with Ukraine and Other Questions,” BBC News, 2021,https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56720589.(Accessed February 9, 2022).

Masters, Jonathan. “Ukraine: Conflict at the Crossroads of Europe and Russia.” Council on Foreign Relations, 2020. https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-crossroads-europe-and-russia. (Accessed February 9, 2022).

Ivanova, Polina, and Roman Olearchyk. “Ukraine and Russia: How Relations Have Soured since the Fall of the Soviet Union.” Financial Times, 2022. https://www.ft.com/content/0a44d4a1-b8b2-4c9d-b07b-63b029c9d6bb. (Accessed February 9, 2022). ‌